A dysfunctional debt-based monetary system, massive imbalances in the markets, immunity from prosecution for those responsible for the 2007-2009 crash, and inadequate responses on the part of Western central banks and governments have created gigantic, global commodity derivatives bubbles that will most likely burst by year’s end, causing a global financial collapse (Our Dysfunctional Monetary System, Forbes, 6 Feb 2016; Analyst: Here Comes the Biggest Stock Market Crash in a Generation, Fortune, 13 Jan 2016).
In such a scenario, banks would be bailed-in and this would produce huge layoffs. The US would hit the debt ceiling earlier than foreseen and would be forced to issue debt-free money (The Trillion-Dollar Platinum Coin Is Back, Bloomberg, 13 Mar 2015) to fund job-creating government spending.
This would, in turn, cause a worldwide flight from US$, a dramatic loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve, hyperinflation in the States, and an egregious overvaluation of the € currency and precious metals.
In order to ride out the storm and break free of the unilateral “Bretton Woods” system, BRICS countries would announce a new gold-backed, electronic currency for international trade settlements, presumably issued by their New Development Bank (In uncertain times, Germany takes more gold home, Reuters, 27 Jan 2016). It would be a common counting unit calculated on the composite exchange rates of a basket of major currencies available only to the Central Banks of the participating countries (Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Reform the international monetary system, BIS, 23 Mar 2009; RMB rate to depend more on basket of currencies: PBOC economist, China Daily, 12 Jan 2016). Eurozone countries would promptly apply for membership, as they did when the AIIB was launched (AIIB will “significantly” bring together Europe, Asia: Luxembourg minister , Xinhua 5 Nov 2015).
The new currency would likely prove a stabilizing novelty in world finance and politics. By contrast, the US$ would lose its privileged reserve status and the United States would no longer be able to export debt and inflation. New rules for a new architecture for the world economy and finance (Merkel and Sarkozy call for global ‘economic security’ council, EUObserver, 9 Jan 2009), as well as new methods of risk evaluation and investment (e.g. global project bonds to recycle surpluses as investments for infrastructures and research projects), would be introduced.