Volcanoes will dramatically alter climate


Our predictions indicate that the present Cycle 24 is expected to be a low-peak cycle. We conclude that the level of solar activity is likely to be reduced significantly during the next 90 years, somewhat resembling the Maunder Minimum period.

On the Verge of a Grand Solar Minimum: A Second Maunder Minimum? Solar Physics, First online: 30 April 2015

The frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum).

Stothers, R.B., 1989, Volcanic eruptions and solar activity. J. Geophys. Res., 94

We examined the timing of 11 eruptive events that produced silica-rich magma from four volcanoes in Japan (Mt. Fuji, Mt. Usu, Myojin-sho, and Satsuma-Iwo-jima) over the past 306 years (from AD 1700 to AD 2005). Nine of the 11 events occurred during inactive phases of solar magnetic activity (solar minimum), which is well indexed by the group sunspot number. This strong association between eruption timing and the solar minimum is statistically significant to a confidence level of 96.7%.


At any given time, about 10-20 volcanoes are erupting on average, and it could be imagined that this number sometimes peaks to about 30-50 erupting volcanoes (on land).


What’s erupting? List & map of currently active volcanoes


There is a simple and inescapably plausible link courtesy of Nikolay Sidorenkov and Paul Vaughan. This does not require nor negate the effects of geomagnetic effect or cosmic rays. I am neither saying anything for or against these effects.

If we imagine the Earth having evolved with a Sun of lower insolation. The atmosphere would be more dense and closer to the surface (without a Sun the Earth would be approaching degeneracy). If, in our imaginary world the Sun increased output then the heating effect upon the atmosphere, irrespective of mechanics, would inflate it against gravity. As the Earth is a rotating inertial frame the atmosphere’s increased extent produces an easterly zonal wind. The extended atmosphere does not have the angular velocity to complete a rotation period in the same time as the surface. It has to describe a larger circle. Given time frictional turbulence within the atmosphere and between the atmosphere and surface would force co-rotation. The result would be an increase in rotation speed of the atmosphere at the cost of reduction in rotation of the solid mass.

Well we already measure this effect.

Zenith cameras positioned around the globe measure the rotating velocity of the Earth relative to fixed points in distant space. The result is differences in length of day measured in milliseconds by atomic clocking.

Increases in insolation inflate the atmosphere. Decreases deflate it. The result is the dominance of the mean zonal wind expressed and measured as atmospheric angular momentum.

Increases in insolation, whether in TSI or spectral (ie UV) inflate the atmosphere and result in a deceleration of the globe as a rotating whole. This force is expressed as a change in the mean zonal wind and becomes a change in oceanic circulation through frictional dissipation. The change in lithospheric rotation is measured by the zenith cameras.

The momentum involved proves that the lithosphere is viscously decoupled from the asthenosphere. A simple order of magnitude deduction makes this a certainty.

To summarise. Inflation or deflation of the atmosphere results in changes in mean zonal wind. This manifests as surface oceanic current changes in circulation and through frictional dissipation. Ultimately the stresses are born by the coupling between the lithosphere and the asthenosphere to conserve momentum. A basic physical requirement.

Therefore rapid changes in insolation result in massive stresses imposed upon the lithosphere in transferring momentum changes through the viscous asthenosphere to the bulk of the rotating mass of the Earth.

Any tectonic weakness will be under greater stress during times of changes in insolation.



Sidorenkov and Vaughan saying:

1. Over time, the earth’s crust and atmosphere will come into some kind of equilibrium, and match speeds as best they can, achieving some kind of “steady-state”
2. when the amount of received solar power changes: either less, or more, the atmosphere cools down or heats up
3. in accordance with the Ideal Gas Law — PV=nRT, the atmosphere will contract or expand, changing it’s angular momentum
4. in accordance with Newton’s law of Conservation of Momentum, [ 1st Law] this will exert a torque on the lithosphere, i.e. Earth’s crust
5. picture the Earth as similar to a spinning medicine ball — a thin ~100 mile thick solid rock “skin”, and a 4,000 mile radius hot molten/fluid rock/iron core, plus the atmosphere as similar to a 1-speed bicycle “friction brake” in contact with the Earth’s surface
6. rock is a marvelous building material — great under compression, not-so-much under shear, which is what happens when it has to exert an equal-and-opposite torque on the contracted or expanded atmosphere
7 this shearing force on the rock lithosphere causes buckling events in the earth’s mantle, hence we get volcanoes when the received solar power changes — both reductions and increases.

A similar phenomenon that may be more familiar is the figure skater’s spin, which may be viewed on T.V. during the winter Olympics.


reductions and increases in solar flux cause reductions and increases in the atmosphere’s moment of inertia respectively.

torques exerted by or on the lithosphere to conserve angular momentum cause shearing forces on the lithosphere / mantle, and hence volcanoes.



Keep them out, lock them up, bomb them all, or…


If someone supported Nazi Germany at the expense of the United States, we didn’t say that was freedom of speech, we put him in a camp, they were prisoners of war. If these people are radicalized and they don’t support the United States and they are disloyal to the United States as a matter of principle, fine. It’s their right and it’s our right and obligation to segregate them from the normal community for the duration of the conflict.

Retired general and former Democratic presidential candidate Wesley Clark, Wesley Clark: “Disloyal Americans” should be tossed in internment camps for the “duration” of the war on terror, Salon, 20 July 2015

Corriere della Sera: What do you propose, then? To deport five million French Muslims?

Zemmour: I know it’s unrealistic, but history takes us by surprise. Who would have thought in 1940 that a million pieds-noirs, twenty years later, would have left Algeria to return to France? Or that, after the war. 5 or 6 million Germans would leave Central and Eastern Europe, where they had lived for centuries? I think we’re heading towards chaos. This situation of a population within another population, as Muslims are in relation to the French, will lead to chaos and civil war. Millions of people live here, in France, and don’t want to live like the French people.

Il successo di Zemmour, l’arrabbiato anti-élite «La Francia si è suicidata» Corriere della Sera, 30 ottobre 2014

It’s mommy Angela: pride, glory and honor of Europe, the future Nobel Peace Prize, the embodiment of a continent of moms who cannot put up with the picture of a dead child … Within hours, Angela Merkel took the monumental responsibility to permanently destroy a millennial Germany and turn it into a multicultural country. The announced 800,000 refugees will have children, millions of people will get on the move now that they see Germany as the nineteenth-century America. But who will eventually play the role of Indians?

Éric Zemmour’s on-air remarks on RTL, 10 September 2015

objectionable humor by Charlie Hebdo

Charlie Hebdo’s objectionable humor

There are currently over 9.5 million Syrian refugees: 6.5 million are internally displaced and the remaining three million have fled the country, mostly seeking refuge in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan.

To this figure we must add five million stateless Palestinian refugees (since 1948), one million Afghan refugees in Iran (UNHCR, 2015), over 3 million internally displaced persons in Iraq and hundreds of thousands of North African refugees.

When, back in 2003, Jacques Chirac and Dominique de Villepin warned the world that the U.S. invasion of Iraq would open a Pandora’s box, few could foresee a catastrophe of these proportions, greatly exceeding the tragedy of Vietnamese boat people (Margaret Thatcher reluctant to give boat people refuge in Britain, Guardian, 30 December 2009).

A crisis that could have been resolved long ago (“Martti Ahtisaari said the failure to consider the Russian offer had led to a ‘self-made disaster’ with the huge flow of refugees” – West ‘ignored Russian offer in 2012 to have Syria’s Assad step aside’, Guardian, 15 September 2015), had the White House made different choices (How U.S. Interventionists Abetted the Rise of ISIS, Wall Street Journal, 27 August 2014), is now turning into a ticking time bomb.

Zemmour, a French celebrity journalist and essayist, like many other European demagogues, is sowing the seeds of hysteria among Europeans, amid fears of “refugee burden” and “new Barbaric invasions” (Zemmour choque en évoquant la déportation des musulmans, Europe 1, 17 décembre 2014; Marine Le Pen verrait bien Eric Zemmour comme son ministre de la Culture, BFMTV, 14 septembre 2015).

While Hungary, Saudi Arabia and Israel have built barbed wire fences, financial analysts are forecasting a worldwide “credit freeze” which, under these circumstances, could ignite massive social unrest across Europe.

This predicament could lead to self-isolating, violently xenophobic movements (Czech police haul migrants off trains to Germany and ‘write numbers on their arms in ink’, Independent, 2 September 2015; Far-right Czech politician recommends placing refugees in concentration camp, Jerusalem Post, 9 September 2015) and the continual erosion or even break-down of the European Union or, alternatively, to a wiser course of action (A 10-Point Plan to Solve Europe’s Refugee Crisis, Huffington Post, 26 August 2015).

Neo Nazi Svoboda leader Oleh Tyahnybok

Neo Nazi Svoboda leader Oleh Tyahnybok (Ukraine underplays role of far right in conflict, BBC, 13 December 2014)

A Saudi Afghanistan – the chickens will come home to roost in Yemen


[I]f you think Iran is the only source of trouble in the Middle East, you must have slept through 9/11, when 15 of the 19 hijackers came from Saudi Arabia. Nothing has been more corrosive to the stability and modernization of the Arab world, and the Muslim world at large, than the billions and billions of dollars the Saudis have invested since the 1970s into wiping out the pluralism of Islam — the Sufi, moderate Sunni and Shiite versions — and imposing in its place the puritanical, anti-modern, anti-women, anti-Western, anti-pluralistic Wahhabi Salafist brand of Islam promoted by the Saudi religious establishment.

It is not an accident that several thousand Saudis have joined the Islamic State or that Arab Gulf charities have sent ISIS donations. It is because all these Sunni jihadist groups — ISIS, Al Qaeda, the Nusra Front — are the ideological offspring of the Wahhabism injected by Saudi Arabia into mosques and madrasas from Morocco to Pakistan to Indonesia.

And we, America, have never called them on that — because we’re addicted to their oil and addicts never tell the truth to their pushers.

Thomas L. Friedman, Our Radical Islamic BFF, Saudi Arabia, NYT, 2 September 2015

The Saudi ground invasion and blockade of Yemen, with no UN mandate, to install a leader of their choice, was a fatal mistake for the House of Saud.

Everything is going the wrong way (How Much Longer Can Saudi Arabia’s Economy Hold Out Against Cheap Oil? Bloomberg, 21 August 2015).
A string of humiliating military setbacks, Egypt and Pakistan refusing to get bogged down, international reactions generally negative:

What worries me is that the Saudi-led air campaign is quite brutal. It’s not like one of our modern air campaigns with the US or the UK, where we worry about civilian casualties. The Saudis, in many cases, seem to be deliberately causing civilian casualties and certainly are causing civilian suffering by knocking out power stations and other pieces of civilian infrastructure.

Michael Knights, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Saudi and UAE boots on the ground intensify the Yemen war, PRI, 12 August 2015

Killing hundreds of civilians and destroying the country’s infrastructures is not going to endear the local population to a puppet president.

There is a serious lack of political and military vision.

Worst of all (from the vantage point of the Saudi leadership), scores of Yemeni volunteers (Houthis represent 40% of the population) are joining the fight and will no doubt seek revenge by crossing the aggressors’ borders and spread their guerrilla warfare across the enemy’s territories.

Inflicting serious damage in Saudi Arabia could divide a Saudi establishment that has invested too much political and financial capital in this war, and even lead to ISIS inroads into the monarchy (‘Thank God for the Saudis’: ISIS, Iraq, and the Lessons of Blowback, The Atlantic, 23 June 2014).

One must keep in mind that the Wahabi doctrine allows for only one ruler: it is either the Saudi king or the Caliph.

Defeat looms large upon the coalition troops and, within a couple of years, we might well see a regime change in Riyadh and/or the break-up of the Saudi Kingdom.

A scenario in which a large number of Saudi citizens turn their back to the dictatorship and force the royals to flee the country and seek refuge in London or Paris is now far from unlikely.

Northern Europe and North America get a chilly surprise


What is happening is very similar to the time 115,000 years ago, when the last glaciation started. It is difficult to comprehend, but it is really so: The last glacial was accompanied by the increase of a really averaged global mean surface temperature, alias global warming. What happened then was that the shifting sun warmed the tropics and cooled the Arctic and Antarctic. Because the tropics are so much larger than the poles, the area-weighted global mean temperature was increasing. But also increasing was the temperature difference between the oceans and the poles, the basic condition of polar ice growth. Believe it or not, the last glacial started with ‘global warming!’

George Kukla, former professor of paleoclimatology at Columbia University and researcher at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Prepare for new Ice Age now says Top Paleoclimatologist Sciences 360, 28 March 2011

Water temperatures in the Bay of Biscay remained relatively high, whereas those in mainland Europe gradually fell. Carried northwards by wind, the humidity released by this thermal contrast appears to have caused the snowfall that formed the polar ice sheet.

Air–sea temperature decoupling in western Europe during the last interglacial–glacial transition, Nature Geoscience 6,837–841(2013)


warm sea + cold air  -> glaciation



North Atlantic sea temperature


Greenland ice mass growth

Greenland ice mass growth


In the 2004 disaster-flick “Day After Tomorrow,” abrupt man-made climate change knocks the planet into a state of utter chaos. At the time, the movie’s vision of the apocalypse wasn’t seen as realistic. But that’s begun to change. Two new studies deepen the fear that global warming could shut down the circulation of the oceans, much as the movie portrays, dropping vast stretches of Asia into drought and exposing the whole Northern Hemisphere to severe ice and snow.

Climate scientists fear ‘Day After Tomorrow’ scenario, MSNBC, 10 September 2015

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic.

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature, 23 March 2015

The resulting northerly flow of cold air provides favourable conditions for severe winters in East Asia or North America.

Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia, Nature, 31 August 2015

The Atlantic overturning circulation is declining and the AMO is moving to a negative phase. This may offer a brief respite from the persistent rise of global temperatures.

Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations, Nature, 27 May 2015

As the jet stream slows down it meanders more, causing weather systems to get stuck in place with a “blocking pattern” that pulls cold, Arctic air down over Europe and northern Asia for long periods at a time.

Cold winters have been caused by global warming: new research, Telegraph, 27 October 2014

The Gulf Stream that helps to keep Britain from freezing over in winter is slowing down faster now than at any time in the past millennium according to a study suggesting that major changes are taking place to the ocean currents of the North Atlantic.

Gulf Stream is slowing down faster than ever, scientists say, Independent, 23 March 2015

Greenland’s melting glaciers have the power to change Britain’s climate because of the way they can interfere with the Gulf Stream of the North Atlantic, which keeps winters relatively mild.

Scientists have found the first hard evidence to show that this actually happened 8,200 years ago, when the climate in parts of the northern hemisphere cooled dramatically after a period of global warming.

Global warming may lead to colder winters in Britain, Independent, 30 June 2006

There may well be cooling times ahead of us (The solar wind is 13% cooler and 20% less dense, NASA, 23 September 2008; Sun Headed Into Hibernation, Solar Studies Predict, National Geographic, 14 giugno 2011; Solheim et al., The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 80, May 2012, Pages 267–284; Global warming pause ‘may last for another decade’, scientists suggest, Telegraph, 21 August 2014; IPCC report: Britain could cool if Gulf Stream slows, Telegraph, 26 September 2013; Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004–2012, Ocean Science, 06 February 2014; Solar activity heads for lowest low in four centuries, New Scientist, 1 November 2013; Real risk of a Maunder minimum ‘Little Ice Age’ says leading scientist, BBC, 28 October 2013; Is our Sun falling silent?, BBC, 18 January 2014; Volcanic aerosols, not pollutants, tamped down recent Earth warming, ScienceDaily, 1 March 2013; Sun-kissed sulphur reveals volcanic effects on climate, Science Nordic, 14 February 2013; Des poussières volcaniques islandaises polluent le nord de la France, Le Figaro, 26 September 2014; Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed, NASA Science News, 6 October 2014; A global temperature conundrum: Cooling or warming climate?, Science Daily, 11 August 2014; Arctic Ice Melt Seen Doubling Risk of Harsh Winter in EU, Bloomberg, 27 October 2014).

Northern Europe and the coming climate refugees crisis, FuturAbles, 13 October 2014